Sat, Dec 27, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 1, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 07 | 013 | 17 | 127 |
| CGY | 39 | 03 | 115 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:08CGYJoe ColborneAssists: Paul Byron, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 8:32CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 8:48CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Jiri Hudler, TJ Brodie · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 4:23EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Justin Schultz, Andrew Ference · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 10:17CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Matt Stajan, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.15 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:24EDMDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:57CGYMarkus Granlund: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00CGYPaul Byron: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:36CGYDeryk Engelland: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:23EDMJeff Petry: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:24CGYDennis Wideman: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:24CGYSean Monahan: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:24EDMMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:24EDMAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:48EDMTaylor Hall: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:59CGYDavid Jones: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:30CGYDennis Wideman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Arcobello won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins11:40
xG 0.44–0.01 (97%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Pinizzotto7:11
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Purcell – Perron – Arcobello10:08
xG 0.26–0.23 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Yakupov – Draisaitl7:47
xG 0.15–0.62 (19%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Petry10:30
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Petry – Schultz5:36
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Ference – Hunt2:46
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestRaymond – Byron – Colborne7:07
xG 0.47–0.07 (87%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Granlund11:30
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 6–9goals 2–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Bollig8:12
xG 0.06–0.23 (21%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Jones – Glencross – Monahan9:48
xG 0.06–0.41 (14%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Diaz11:43
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Wideman – Russell15:56
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:54
xG 0.45–0.56 (44%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).