Mon, Dec 29, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 24 | 010 | 09 | 223 |
| TBL | 015 | 217 | 19 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:28TORMike SantorelliAssists: Nazem Kadri, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 7:47TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Tyler Bozak, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 6:37TBLRyan CallahanPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.32 xG2–1
- P2 9:46TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Victor Hedman, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 11:05TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Matt Carle · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:58TBLAndrej Sustr: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:20TORDavid Booth: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:30TORJoffrey Lupul: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:27TORJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
- P3 11:23TBLAlex Killorn: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:59TORDavid Booth: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Winnik – Smith – Ashton4:51
xG 0.04–0.12 (26%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Santorelli – van Riemsdyk – Kadri9:27
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak14:46
xG 0.48–0.86 (36%)attempts 10–21goals 1–1
- Clarkson – Booth – Holland10:17
xG 0.12–0.51 (19%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Polak – Gardiner2:15
xG 0.04–0.13 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Holzer – Gardiner12:06
xG 0.34–0.52 (39%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Polak – Rielly12:07
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Killorn11:08
xG 0.64–0.11 (85%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Paquette – Drouin8:39
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Connolly4:42
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Stamkos2:05
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Gudas11:36
xG 0.71–0.30 (70%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Carle – Stralman13:47
xG 0.68–0.29 (71%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Hedman – Sustr13:00
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).