Mon, Dec 29, 2014·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 4, Chicago Blackhawks 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 218 | 211 | 08 | 03 | 0 | 440 |
| CHI | 012 | 316 | 19 | 05 | 1 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:50NSHRoman JosiAssists: Paul Gaustad · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 17:12NSHCraig SmithAssists: Colin Wilson, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–0
- P2 7:28NSHJames NealAssists: Colin Wilson, Pekka Rinne · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 10:33CHIBrad RichardsAssists: Kris Versteeg, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 15:48CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Patrick Sharp, Bryan Bickell · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–2
- P2 17:43CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 19:04NSHJames NealPPAssists: Mike Fisher, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–3
- P3 18:47CHIBryan BickellAssists: David Rundblad, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
- 2. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
- 3. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 4. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 5. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:45NSHColin Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:05CHIBrandon Saad: Interference2 min
- P2 0:45NSHTaylor Beck: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:56CHIJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:26NSHShea Weber: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:59CHIPatrick Sharp: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:59NSHRoman Josi: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:47NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min
- P2 18:58CHIAndrew Shaw: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 3:37CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:45NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:20CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Forsberg8:56
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson9:53
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Bourque – Jarnkrok10:03
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Beck7:18
xG 0.14–0.41 (25%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bartley – Jones8:12
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm11:59
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi17:33
xG 0.79–1.47 (35%)attempts 23–24goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Versteeg – Kane9:34
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Bickell – Shaw – Saad3:16
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Carcillo – Smith – Kruger2:34
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews2:04
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook14:00
xG 1.30–0.29 (82%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- Erixon – Rundblad7:03
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Keith – Rundblad2:35
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).