Wed, Dec 31, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 16 | 15 | 314 | 525 |
| BUF | 14 | 06 | 01 | 111 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:48TBLMatt CarleAssists: Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 12:33BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Matt Moulson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 19:02TBLOndrej PalatPPGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 5:20TBLBrett ConnollyAssists: Anton Stralman, Ondrej Palat · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 8:40TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Tyler Johnson, Anton Stralman · Backhand, 0.31 xG4–1
- P3 18:05TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson · Snap, 0.08 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:59TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:22BUFPatrick Kaleta: Interference2 min
- P2 5:03TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:09BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:11BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Flynn won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov10:10
xG 1.02–0.04 (96%)attempts 15–3goals 3–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Connolly6:19
xG 0.21–0.05 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Killorn13:40
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Paquette – Drouin11:38
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Barberio5:29
xG 0.55–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Hedman – Nesterov6:23
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Carle – Barberio6:26
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Stewart – Hodgson – Grigorenko13:15
xG 0.15–0.16 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- McCormick – Kaleta – Larsson5:12
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons12:31
xG 0.24–0.53 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
- Stafford – Deslauriers – Flynn9:10
xG 0.03–0.41 (6%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Meszaros – Weber15:11
xG 0.27–0.31 (47%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Gorges – Pysyk15:59
xG 0.12–0.32 (28%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Strachan – Zadorov15:02
xG 0.10–0.80 (11%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).