Sat, Jan 3, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 17 | 08 | 121 |
| WPG | 010 | 317 | 213 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:19TORMike SantorelliAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Dion Phaneuf · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 3:29WPGTJ GaliardiAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 5:59WPGMatt HalischukGWGAssists: Ben Chiarot, Andrew Ladd · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 10:04WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 3:37WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 10:55WPGBen ChiarotAssists: Bryan Little · Slap, 0.02 xG1–5
Penalties (13)
- P2 6:33WPGDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min
- P2 13:10TORDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
- P2 13:37TORRoman Polak: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:13TORTyler Bozak: Holding2 min
- P2 16:41WPGAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:38TORKorbinian Holzer: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:38TORKorbinian Holzer: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:23WPGJay Harrison: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:27WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:32TORRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:32TORRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:32WPGJim Slater: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:32WPGJim Slater: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBooth – Winnik – Ashton4:11
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Booth – Santorelli – Smith3:53
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Komarov – McKegg3:25
xG 0.02–0.12 (17%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Winnik – McKegg2:30
xG 0.06–0.25 (19%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Polak – Holzer3:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Holzer – Gardiner10:46
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Franson12:57
xG 0.27–0.57 (32%)attempts 5–15goals 1–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little10:21
xG 0.91–0.15 (86%)attempts 16–3goals 2–0
- Frolik – Perreault – Scheifele10:50
xG 0.59–0.11 (85%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Galiardi – Halischuk – Lowry7:27
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Peluso6:26
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot13:28
xG 1.12–0.18 (86%)attempts 21–4goals 4–0
- Harrison – Clitsome13:40
xG 0.84–0.28 (75%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Pardy – Postma12:19
xG 0.80–0.27 (75%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).