Sat, Jan 10, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Ottawa Senators 5, Arizona Coyotes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 212 | 112 | 29 | 533 |
| ARI | 19 | 011 | 012 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:31ARIMikkel BoedkerAssists: Sam Gagner, Lucas Lessio · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 7:08OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P1 13:09OTTClarke MacArthurGWGAssists: Kyle Turris, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 9:21OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 1:26OTTCody CeciPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Clarke MacArthur · Slap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 19:53OTTDavid LegwandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:23ARIMartin Erat: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:29OTTMarc Methot: Interference2 min
- P1 13:29ARIChris Summers: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:00OTTJared Cowen: Holding2 min
- P2 11:15OTTMilan Michalek: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:40ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 15:40OTTMika Zibanejad: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:27ARILucas Lessio: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:58OTTCurtis Lazar: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:46ARIJoe Vitale: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chipchura won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Pageau – Lazar2:24
xG 0.42–0.07 (86%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – Ryan – Hoffman2:20
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Condra – Zibanejad – Lazar5:16
xG 0.25–0.09 (73%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Chiasson8:36
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCowen – Ceci11:23
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Phillips – Gryba8:39
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Methot – Gryba2:04
xG 0.06–0.05 (54%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Vitale – McMillan5:21
xG 0.44–0.23 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Doan – Erat – Vermette5:44
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Boedker – Rieder3:58
xG 0.07–0.03 (71%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Erat – Chipchura – Korpikoski2:59
xG 0.03–0.16 (16%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Ekman-Larsson11:07
xG 0.54–0.49 (53%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Yandle – Stone2:07
xG 0.06–0.02 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gormley – Murphy11:36
xG 0.23–0.44 (35%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).