Thu, Jan 15, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Minnesota Wild 7, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 215 | 312 | 210 | 737 |
| BUF | 03 | 010 | 05 | 018 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:13MINZach PariseGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville · Deflected, 0.34 xG1–0
- P1 19:01MINThomas VanekPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 6:00MINKyle BrodziakSHAssists: Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–0
- P2 9:06MINMathew DumbaAssists: Jason Pominville, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.02 xG4–0
- P2 18:54MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Jonathon Blum, Ryan Carter · Slap, 0.01 xG5–0
- P3 4:26MINMatt CookeAssists: Kyle Brodziak · Deflected, 0.05 xG6–0
- P3 18:27MINErik HaulaPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Christian Folin · Snap, 0.08 xG7–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:11BUFTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:42MINThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:56BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 16:56MINMathew Dumba: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:12BUFMike Weber: Holding2 min
- P2 4:59MINJason Zucker: Interference2 min
- P2 11:09MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:32BUFJosh Gorges: Holding2 min
- P3 6:27BUFTyler Myers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:28BUFPatrick Kaleta: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:45BUFChris Stewart: Elbowing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Girgensons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Pominville – Parise10:38
xG 1.47–0.08 (95%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Vanek – Haula – Zucker7:44
xG 0.82–0.30 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Coyle – Niederreiter8:43
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Fontaine10:35
xG 0.15–0.50 (23%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Dumba6:53
xG 1.54–0.16 (91%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Spurgeon – Prosser4:32
xG 0.79–0.18 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba2:32
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Stewart – Hodgson – Deslauriers3:19
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stafford – Mitchell – Flynn9:39
xG 0.08–0.09 (46%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Ellis – Kaleta – Deslauriers3:35
xG 0.00–0.54 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons12:08
xG 0.38–0.94 (29%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gorges – Myers12:40
xG 0.08–0.18 (30%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Zadorov16:33
xG 0.71–1.11 (39%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Weber11:49
xG 0.29–0.73 (28%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).