Sun, Jan 18, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 212 | 212 | 17 | 531 |
| PIT | 111 | 08 | 115 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26NYRRick NashUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 6:08NYRDerick BrassardAssists: Kevin Klein, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P1 15:08PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: David Perron, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 2:39NYRRick NashGWGAssists: Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 5:34NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 4:16PITDavid PerronAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 6:15NYRDerek StepanAssists: Chris Kreider, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:52NYRMarc Staal: Interference2 min
- P1 9:05NYRMartin St. Louis: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:25NYRChris Kreider: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:49PITChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:43PITPaul Martin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:31PITSimon Despres: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 11:47PITDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P2 15:42PITSimon Despres: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:58PITBeau Bennett: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello8:55
xG 0.46–0.46 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 3–0
- Hagelin – Hayes – Fast10:41
xG 0.26–0.25 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Moore – Stempniak – Miller9:15
xG 0.03–0.15 (15%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider9:01
xG 0.40–0.72 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – McDonagh4:10
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Staal – Girardi3:52
xG 0.11–0.02 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh9:58
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDownie – Sutter – Spaling3:24
xG 0.28–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 0–2
- Kunitz – Crosby – Perron11:38
xG 0.85–0.67 (56%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Sutter – Spaling – Arcobello3:04
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Malkin – Downie – Bennett3:19
xG 0.09–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Letang3:54
xG 0.50–0.02 (96%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Ehrhoff10:03
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Martin – Despres2:21
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).