Tue, Jan 27, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Arizona Coyotes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 210 | 15 | 09 | 03 | 0 | 327 |
| PHI | 116 | 212 | 013 | 01 | 1 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:33ARIConnor MurphyAssists: Martin Erat, Andrew Campbell · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 5:50ARIMartin EratAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Shane Doan · Snap, 0.51 xG2–0
- P1 9:02PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Mark Streit, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.37 xG2–1
- P2 13:55PHIR.J. UmbergerAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 18:59PHIMichael Del ZottoAssists: Jakub Voracek, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 19:22ARITobias RiederAssists: Shane Doan, Antoine Vermette · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ARI Sam Gagner stopped
- 2. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 3. ARI Oliver Ekman-Larsson stopped
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 5. ARI Antoine Vermette stopped
- 6. PHI Wayne Simmonds scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 8:11ARIBrandon McMillan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:14PHIRyan White: Interference2 min
- P2 0:30ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Chipchura – Korpikoski6:33
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Erat – Hanzal – Gagner15:15
xG 0.52–0.56 (48%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Korpikoski – Vitale – Lessio3:27
xG 0.03–0.16 (18%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Rieder15:19
xG 0.22–0.38 (36%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson18:41
xG 0.86–0.55 (61%)attempts 12–24goals 2–0
- Yandle – Stone17:55
xG 1.06–0.98 (52%)attempts 17–20goals 0–2
- Campbell – Murphy15:06
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Schenn14:55
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare8:53
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- White – Simmonds – Straka7:18
xG 0.06–0.16 (26%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Umberger – Read – Couturier12:12
xG 0.96–1.32 (42%)attempts 20–17goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – MacDonald15:04
xG 0.98–0.57 (63%)attempts 24–7goals 1–1
- Streit – Schultz16:45
xG 0.59–0.34 (63%)attempts 22–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Del Zotto18:22
xG 0.52–0.62 (46%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).