Mon, Feb 2, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 16 | 06 | 17 | 219 |
| CGY | 18 | 18 | 312 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Bryan Little, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 4:16CGYDavid JonesAssists: Mark Giordano · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 1:59CGYMason RaymondAssists: Sven Baertschi · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 4:24CGYRaphael DiazPPGWGAssists: Lance Bouma, Joe Colborne · Slap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 7:23CGYBrandon BolligAssists: Joe Colborne, Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 8:43WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–4
- P3 17:27CGYSean MonahanENAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.59 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:40WPGMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:31WPGBryan Little: Interference2 min
- P2 15:13CGYSven Baertschi: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00CGYLance Bouma: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:25WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:55CGYMatt Stajan: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Colborne
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Perreault – Scheifele12:22
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little10:25
xG 0.67–0.56 (54%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Slater – Galiardi – Peluso3:42
xG 0.08–0.12 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Kane – Lowry12:39
xG 0.11–0.57 (16%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba10:53
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 14–7goals 0–2
- Bogosian – Chiarot10:50
xG 0.47–0.39 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien16:06
xG 0.54–0.61 (47%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Jones – Bouma5:58
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Byron – Colborne – Bollig2:23
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Jones – Bouma – Jooris3:04
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
- Raymond – Colborne – Baertschi3:42
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie15:22
xG 0.77–0.17 (82%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Russell – Brodie3:01
xG 0.03–0.25 (9%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Engelland – Diaz11:16
xG 0.25–0.50 (34%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).