Tue, Feb 3, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Arizona Coyotes 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 114 | 213 | 12 | 429 |
| CBJ | 010 | 19 | 012 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:00ARILucas LessioAssists: B.J. Crombeen, Brendan Shinnimin · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 0:40CBJJames WisniewskiPPAssists: Jack Johnson, Scott Hartnell · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 2:32ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 5:19ARIShane DoanPPAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–1
- P3 17:49ARITobias RiederENAssists: Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:09ARIKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:09CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:24ARIConnor Murphy: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:56CBJJames Wisniewski: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:16CBJRyan Murray: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:14ARIAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:38CBJRyan Johansen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:14ARITobias Rieder: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Chipchura – McMillan10:13
xG 1.14–0.41 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Shinnimin – Lessio11:09
xG 0.55–0.17 (77%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Erat – Korpikoski – Gagner10:41
xG 0.19–0.42 (32%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Rieder9:09
xG 0.19–0.52 (27%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Murphy13:09
xG 1.17–0.28 (81%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Yandle – Stone15:59
xG 0.89–0.70 (56%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Yandle – Murphy2:00
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Anisimov – Tropp2:16
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Atkinson – Johansen9:09
xG 0.93–0.78 (54%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Tropp4:23
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Letestu – Tropp2:14
xG 0.01–0.02 (28%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson13:21
xG 0.89–0.76 (54%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Leopold – Wisniewski9:26
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Connauton3:04
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).