Tue, Feb 10, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 2, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 114 | 04 | 18 | 226 |
| BUF | 08 | 021 | 17 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:18OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Mark Stone · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 5:08BUFTyler MyersPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 12:15OTTMilan MichalekGWGAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 11:33BUFBrian Gionta: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:04BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:04OTTErik Condra: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:04OTTErik Condra: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:04BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:34OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:34OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:34BUFPatrick Kaleta: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:23OTTClarke MacArthur: Holding2 min
- P3 4:14OTTEric Gryba: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:26BUFBrian Gionta: Holding2 min
- P3 13:01BUFChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:44OTTMarc Methot: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Neil – Condra6:53
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Turris – Stone – Lazar12:29
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Chiasson – Pageau6:28
xG 0.13–0.28 (31%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Michalek – MacArthur – Zibanejad11:18
xG 0.32–1.00 (24%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Borowiecki11:19
xG 0.86–0.43 (67%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Gryba – Cowen14:17
xG 0.62–0.54 (54%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson17:20
xG 0.27–0.83 (25%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Moulson – Mitchell13:23
xG 0.97–0.24 (80%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Stewart – Ennis – Girgensons11:41
xG 0.54–0.47 (54%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Ellis – Kaleta – Deslauriers5:02
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Stafford – Foligno – Flynn10:43
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Myers16:42
xG 1.00–0.50 (67%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Weber13:51
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Zadorov13:22
xG 0.61–0.99 (38%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).