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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 10, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo

Ottawa Senators 2, Buffalo Sabres 1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 74% of the time.

BUF winsOTT wins

Who was on the ice

Model-based

Line matchups and every shift of the game.

Line matchups

BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against OTT's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.

Turris–Stone–LazarMichalek–MacArthur–ZibanejadLegwand–Neil–CondraHoffman–Chiasson–PageauMichalek–Hoffman–ZibanejadMethot–KarlssonGryba–CowenWiercioch–BorowieckiKarlsson–Cowen
Gionta–Moulson–Mitchell3:080.11–0.105:230.83–0.040:300.00–0.001:360.03–0.000:330.00–0.106:160.37–0.105:540.44–0.140:490.11–0.00
Stewart–Ennis–Girgensons1:430.03–0.031:590.11–0.203:560.15–0.231:120.00–0.003:550.25–0.032:470.04–0.172:540.06–0.11
Stafford–Foligno–Flynn6:380.09–0.221:110.00–0.110:420.00–0.002:370.04–0.021:340.01–0.075:320.18–0.31
Ellis–Kaleta–Deslauriers2:090.03–0.082:100.20–0.101:580.18–0.102:060.03–0.080:580.03–0.03
Gorges–Myers4:090.03–0.125:500.74–0.281:070.00–0.003:040.09–0.108:140.34–0.255:040.38–0.242:350.10–0.00
Meszaros–Weber5:080.08–0.082:490.10–0.041:120.01–0.151:120.00–0.000:340.00–0.103:370.14–0.004:050.01–0.154:020.21–0.04
Ristolainen–Zadorov2:240.12–0.181:440.13–0.004:100.14–0.191:420.19–0.034:310.34–0.023:420.14–0.133:450.10–0.800:470.03–0.00
Gorges–Meszaros0:350.00–0.03
Shift chart

Every shift, one row per player.

P1P2P3EndGionta FMitchell FMoulson FStewart FGirgensons FEnnis FStafford FFlynn FFoligno FDeslauriers FEllis FKaleta FGorges DMyers DWeber DMeszaros DZadorov DRistolainen DEnroth GMichalek FMacArthur FZibanejad FLegwand FCondra FNeil FTurris FLazar FStone FChiasson FPageau FHoffman FMethot DKarlsson DCowen DGryba DWiercioch DBorowiecki DLehner G
BUFOTTFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.

Shift totals

Erik KarlssonOTT2425:571:053:0443
Tyler MyersBUF3425:450:451:5675
Eric GrybaOTT2421:490:551:4023
Josh GorgesBUF2821:340:461:3525
Marc MethotOTT2721:080:471:3134
Matt MoulsonBUF2220:420:562:08101
Mark StoneOTT2320:420:541:5687
Kyle TurrisOTT2220:170:552:1384
Zemgus GirgensonsBUF2420:070:501:5642
Brian GiontaBUF2419:120:481:1772
Milan MichalekOTT2318:450:491:5642
Tyler EnnisBUF2318:410:492:1640
Chris StewartBUF2418:220:462:1650
Jared CowenOTT2417:580:451:1514
Mike WeberBUF2617:350:412:0601
Rasmus RistolainenBUF2917:290:361:3052
Drew StaffordBUF2116:590:491:4052
Patrick WierciochOTT1916:520:532:0561
Andrej MeszarosBUF2516:420:401:0221
Torrey MitchellBUF2116:210:471:0773
Curtis LazarOTT1815:440:521:3044
Nikita ZadorovBUF2715:430:351:0552
Marcus FolignoBUF2115:370:451:2263
Mark BorowieckiOTT1915:280:491:4743
Mika ZibanejadOTT2115:180:441:1212
Clarke MacArthurOTT2114:470:421:1513
Brian FlynnBUF2014:290:431:1634
David LegwandOTT2213:160:361:0935
Erik CondraOTT1913:040:411:2425
Mike HoffmanOTT1611:380:441:0831
Jean-Gabriel PageauOTT1710:580:391:1623
Chris NeilOTT179:580:351:1221
Alex ChiassonOTT159:270:381:1110
Nicolas DeslauriersBUF157:580:320:5301
Matt EllisBUF127:110:360:5900
Patrick KaletaBUF96:040:400:5100