Tue, Feb 10, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 08 | 210 | 04 | 232 |
| NSH | 08 | 211 | 08 | 12 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:31NSHSeth JonesAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Anton Volchenkov · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 12:47NSHTaylor BeckAssists: Paul Gaustad, Eric Nystrom · Snap, 0.56 xG0–2
- P3 1:20TBLBrett ConnollyAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–2
- P3 7:50TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson · Slap, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 4:27NSHJames NealGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:57TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:59TBLMark Barberio: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:58NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min
- P2 4:13TBLBrett Connolly: Holding2 min
- P2 4:13TBLBrett Connolly: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:13NSHAnthony Bitetto: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:13NSHAnthony Bitetto: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:52NSHMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov13:09
xG 0.75–0.26 (75%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Filppula – Boyle – Connolly3:59
xG 0.53–0.04 (93%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos5:51
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Stamkos10:47
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Barberio9:21
xG 0.91–0.53 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sustr13:00
xG 0.35–0.08 (81%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Witkowski – Hedman3:04
xG 0.26–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Nystrom – Beck11:29
xG 0.73–0.52 (58%)attempts 4–18goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg8:51
xG 0.62–0.57 (52%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Cullen – Bourque – Jarnkrok11:26
xG 0.23–0.31 (42%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Fisher – Neal – Stalberg8:54
xG 0.19–0.66 (22%)attempts 12–5goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi20:34
xG 0.52–0.45 (53%)attempts 15–25goals 0–0
- Bartley – Bitetto8:51
xG 0.99–0.93 (51%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Bartley – Jones2:08
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).