Fri, Feb 13, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
San Jose Sharks 4, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 28 | 211 | 426 |
| ARI | 212 | 012 | 012 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:42ARIMark ArcobelloAssists: Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 15:07ARIMartin EratPPAssists: Sam Gagner, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 0:27SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joe Thornton, Scott Hannan · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 13:09SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 6:23SJSBarclay GoodrowGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Antti Niemi · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 18:34SJSJoe PavelskiENAssists: Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.56 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:19ARIMark Arcobello: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:08SJSMatt Tennyson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:37SJSBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:57ARIMichael Stone: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:47ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:33SJSMatt Irwin: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:33ARIBrendan Shinnimin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Karlsson13:12
xG 0.38–0.16 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Desjardins – Goodrow – Hertl4:05
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Desjardins – Goodrow – Tierney2:24
xG 0.01–0.13 (7%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Sheppard – Wingels – Tierney7:46
xG 0.07–0.22 (25%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Burns16:31
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 19–17goals 2–0
- Dillon – Mueller14:54
xG 0.39–0.40 (50%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
- Dillon – Irwin2:30
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestErat – Korpikoski – Shinnimin9:23
xG 0.40–0.04 (90%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Moss – Chipchura – Martinook7:57
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Rieder11:38
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Gagner – Arcobello – Lessio13:07
xG 0.23–0.52 (30%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Stone15:50
xG 0.88–0.48 (65%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0
- Campbell – Murphy10:48
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson17:45
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).