Sat, Feb 14, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
New York Rangers 5, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 19 | 413 | 532 |
| ARI | 07 | 114 | 014 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:55NYRChris KreiderAssists: Derek Stepan, Kevin Klein · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 6:33ARIAntoine VermetteAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Lucas Lessio · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
- P3 1:19NYRRick NashGWGAssists: Kevin Klein, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 11:54NYRKevin HayesSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 14:16NYRMarc StaalAssists: Derek Stepan, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
- P3 17:48NYRLee StempniakAssists: Dan Girardi, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.33 xG5–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 1:20NYRCarl Hagelin: Embellishment2 min
- P1 10:11NYRJ.T. Miller: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:06NYRDerick Brassard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Stepan – Kreider13:02
xG 1.15–0.33 (78%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Moore – Stempniak – Glass8:11
xG 0.63–0.90 (41%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello11:56
xG 0.36–0.64 (36%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Hayes – Miller11:59
xG 0.23–0.68 (25%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi3:35
xG 1.01–0.44 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 2–1
- Klein – McDonagh3:40
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh14:19
xG 0.59–0.47 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Arcobello – Rieder13:21
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Moss – Vitale – Martinook8:09
xG 0.87–0.71 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Doan – Chipchura – Lessio13:41
xG 0.53–0.58 (48%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Erat – Vermette – Korpikoski12:05
xG 0.39–1.03 (27%)attempts 6–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson16:08
xG 1.13–1.08 (51%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy3:17
xG 0.03–0.02 (69%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Yandle – Stone17:03
xG 0.88–0.87 (50%)attempts 22–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).