Thu, Feb 19, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Vancouver Canucks 5, New York Rangers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 05 | 210 | 212 | 01 | 2 | 528 |
| NYR | 114 | 112 | 26 | 02 | 0 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:39NYRDerek StepanAssists: Martin St. Louis, Dan Girardi · Snap, 0.37 xG0–1
- P2 1:43VANShawn MatthiasAssists: Jannik Hansen, Ronalds Kenins · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 11:00NYRRick NashAssists: Derick Brassard, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 13:18VANBo HorvatAssists: Ronalds Kenins, Jannik Hansen · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 3:55VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Adam Clendening, Daniel Sedin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 5:03NYRMartin St. LouisAssists: Derek Stepan, Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 5:24NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Dan Girardi · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 18:00VANHenrik SedinAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.13 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 2. VAN Alexandre Burrows scored
- 3. NYR Derek Stepan stopped
- 4. VAN Radim Vrbata scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:01VANJannik Hansen: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:00VANAlexandre Burrows: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:00NYRMats Zuccarello: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:00VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:00NYRMats Zuccarello: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:55VANRonalds Kenins: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:07VANAlexandre Burrows: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:07VANAlexandre Burrows: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:07NYRChris Kreider: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 2:39NYRKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows10:23
xG 0.93–0.35 (73%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hansen – Horvat – Kenins9:44
xG 0.73–0.28 (72%)attempts 15–8goals 1–2
- Dorsett – Matthias – McMillan7:12
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Higgins – Dorsett – Matthias2:10
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStanton – Clendening10:11
xG 0.65–0.36 (65%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Biega – Sbisa14:22
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Weber13:00
xG 1.08–1.15 (48%)attempts 16–11goals 0–3
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Hayes – Miller9:22
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello12:36
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Moore – Hagelin – Hayes2:24
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider12:10
xG 0.76–0.98 (44%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Moore11:27
xG 0.75–0.17 (82%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh16:32
xG 1.24–1.07 (54%)attempts 16–13goals 3–2
- Klein – Moore3:21
xG 0.02–0.13 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).