Sun, Feb 22, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, New York Rangers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 08 | 211 | 18 | 03 | 1 | 330 |
| NYR | 214 | 116 | 01 | 06 | 2 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:57NYRKevin HayesAssists: Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 8:06NYRMartin St. LouisAssists: Derek Stepan, Marc Staal · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 1:24NYRMartin St. LouisAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 2:17CBJMarko DanoAssists: Nick Foligno, Fedor Tyutin · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 18:11CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: Marko Dano · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–3
- P3 15:41CBJDavid SavardAssists: Artem Anisimov, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYR Martin St. Louis scored
- 2. CBJ Mark Letestu scored
- 3. NYR J.T. Miller stopped
- 4. CBJ Ryan Johansen stopped
- 5. NYR Rick Nash scored
- 6. CBJ Cam Atkinson stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:16NYRJohn Moore: Holding2 min
- P1 10:37NYRDan Boyle: Holding2 min
- P2 10:53CBJDavid Savard: Interference2 min
- P2 13:07CBJJack Johnson: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:03NYRRick Nash: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:39CBJDavid Savard: Interference2 min
- OT 0:09CBJFedor Tyutin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Anisimov – Dano12:00
xG 1.28–0.39 (77%)attempts 18–7goals 3–2
- Hartnell – Johansen – Wennberg11:31
xG 0.80–0.65 (55%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Boll – Letestu – Tropp4:38
xG 0.03–0.06 (30%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson11:49
xG 0.06–0.95 (6%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Johnson5:17
xG 0.50–0.06 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Savard – Connauton7:57
xG 0.54–0.26 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard10:11
xG 0.69–0.43 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Zuccarello12:27
xG 0.70–0.15 (82%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider13:13
xG 1.01–0.66 (60%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Hagelin – Hayes – Miller7:54
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Moore – Stempniak – Glass7:21
xG 0.18–0.99 (15%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – McDonagh2:27
xG 0.33–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Staal – Girardi2:48
xG 0.12–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – McDonagh2:04
xG 0.09–0.04 (72%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).