Tue, Feb 24, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Arizona Coyotes 1, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 06 | 114 | 08 | 128 |
| NYI | 012 | 113 | 414 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:37NYIAnders LeeAssists: Travis Hamonic, Brock Nelson · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 15:52ARIMark ArcobelloAssists: Martin Erat, David Moss · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 3:18NYIMatt MartinGWGAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Kael Mouillierat · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 4:15NYIJohnny BoychukAssists: John Tavares, Ryan Strome · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 7:16NYIKael MouillieratAssists: Colin McDonald, Nikolay Kulemin · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 9:10NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Bailey, Colin McDonald · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 11:33ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:15ARIB.J. Crombeen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:15NYICal Clutterbuck: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:42NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:33NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:54NYICal Clutterbuck: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Erat – Moss – Arcobello9:36
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Doan – Vermette – Lessio13:57
xG 0.15–0.46 (24%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
- Korpikoski – Gagner – Rieder11:23
xG 0.43–0.76 (36%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Crombeen – Chipchura – Martinook8:50
xG 0.42–0.86 (33%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReese – Yandle2:38
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Reese – Gormley14:08
xG 0.56–0.74 (43%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Yandle – Campbell14:47
xG 0.44–0.96 (32%)attempts 20–16goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Strome6:10
xG 0.70–0.10 (88%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Tavares – Lee – Strome2:30
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- McDonald – Martin – Mouillierat2:27
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Clutterbuck – Grabner5:35
xG 0.31–0.17 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan16:04
xG 1.09–0.48 (69%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey14:13
xG 0.75–0.43 (63%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy15:49
xG 0.78–0.50 (61%)attempts 19–17goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).