Tue, Feb 24, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 13 | 05 | 112 | 220 |
| NSH | 19 | 216 | 216 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:57COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Brad Stuart · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 4:12NSHCalle JarnkrokUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 4:32NSHCraig SmithAssists: Mike Fisher · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 11:06NSHRoman JosiGWGAssists: Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 0:54NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 8:28NSHEric NystromENAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–5
- P3 18:41COLJohn MitchellPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 13:01COLGabriel Landeskog: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:01NSHShea Weber: Instigator2 min
- P1 13:01NSHShea Weber: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:01NSHShea Weber: Misconduct10 min
- P1 14:45COLJohn Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P1 16:27NSHFilip Forsberg: Holding2 min
- P2 15:18COLBrad Stuart: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:10NSHCraig Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:37COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:37NSHVictor Bartley: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:53NSHMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Talbot – Duchene12:41
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon13:08
xG 0.14–0.44 (24%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- McLeod – Cliche – Carey6:50
xG 0.02–0.32 (5%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Mitchell – Everberg10:14
xG 0.10–0.92 (10%)attempts 8–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Guenin – Barrie10:03
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Stuart – Hejda3:04
xG 0.01–0.18 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Guenin – Elliott3:50
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Neal – Forsberg12:32
xG 0.74–0.29 (72%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Santorelli – Wilson – Jarnkrok11:18
xG 0.52–0.15 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Cullen – Fisher – Smith8:06
xG 0.42–0.07 (86%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Bourque9:50
xG 0.10–0.16 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBartley – Jones11:38
xG 0.63–0.11 (86%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi12:25
xG 0.81–0.37 (69%)attempts 20–7goals 2–1
- Franson – Ekholm14:44
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).