Sat, Feb 28, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 4, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 18 | 27 | 425 |
| NSH | 09 | 316 | 015 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:22DETBrendan SmithAssists: Joakim Andersson, Drew Miller · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 2:03DETDrew MillerAssists: Tomas Jurco · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 2:33NSHMatt CullenAssists: Craig Smith, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 6:02NSHMike FisherAssists: Cody Franson, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 16:08NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 3:56DETAlexey MarchenkoAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 9:06DETTomas TatarPPGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Niklas Kronwall · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 19:58DETLuke Glendening: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:58NSHMike Ribeiro: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:17DETJakub Kindl: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:28NSHRoman Josi: Interference2 min
- P2 14:11DETTomas Tatar: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 14:11NSHColin Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:16DETBrendan Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 2:02DETBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P3 2:02NSHFilip Forsberg: Embellishment2 min
- P3 8:07NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:42NSHJames Neal: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:57DETBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P3 17:17DETRiley Sheahan: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:37NSHJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:50NSHPekka Rinne: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Weiss – Andersson – Pulkkinen3:12
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Datsyuk – Helm – Tatar2:41
xG 0.02–0.02 (49%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Abdelkader – Tatar5:50
xG 0.06–0.06 (47%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Jurco – Glendening6:29
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson12:54
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Smith – DeKeyser13:05
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 1–2
- Kindl – Marchenko9:43
xG 0.16–0.46 (25%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Neal – Forsberg11:23
xG 0.59–0.38 (61%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Wilson – Jarnkrok7:18
xG 0.25–0.14 (65%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fisher – Smith8:22
xG 0.26–0.27 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Bourque7:55
xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Ekholm13:54
xG 0.65–0.08 (88%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi15:40
xG 0.39–0.13 (76%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Bartley – Jones7:26
xG 0.16–0.51 (24%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).