Sun, Mar 1, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 3, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 113 | 03 | 26 | 322 |
| DAL | 010 | 117 | 013 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:46ANACorey PerryAssists: Jiri Sekac, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 17:51DALPatrick EavesPPAssists: Trevor Daley, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.42 xG1–1
- P3 4:19ANAClayton StonerGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 14:09ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:33ANAJiri Sekac: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:33ANAClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:33DALCurtis McKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:52ANAClayton Stoner: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:43ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:18DALJyrki Jokipakka: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg7:34
xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Thompson – Etem – Sekac3:03
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Sekac3:48
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 3–6goals 2–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon2:20
xG 0.03–0.01 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm15:42
xG 0.83–0.35 (70%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
- Stoner – Manson10:04
xG 0.02–0.19 (11%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm2:15
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hemsky – Benn9:34
xG 0.62–0.09 (88%)attempts 22–6goals 0–1
- Horcoff – Sceviour – Ritchie7:01
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Eaves – McKenzie5:24
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt11:19
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Benn14:15
xG 0.88–0.09 (90%)attempts 27–6goals 0–0
- Daley – Jokipakka14:38
xG 0.31–0.60 (34%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Klingberg17:34
xG 0.43–0.74 (37%)attempts 24–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).