Sat, Mar 7, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
St. Louis Blues 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 317 | 212 | 115 | 644 |
| TOR | 05 | 07 | 112 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:49STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jori Lehtera · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 16:30STLT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Brian Elliott · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 19:45STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jori Lehtera, Carl Gunnarsson · Snap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 11:07STLChris ButlerSHAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera · Slap, 0.02 xG4–0
- P2 13:36STLPaul StastnyPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alexander Steen · Snap, 0.17 xG5–0
- P3 2:59TORDavid BoothAssists: Jake Gardiner, Peter Holland · Tip-in, 0.10 xG5–1
- P3 10:36STLDavid BackesAssists: Alexander Steen, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.16 xG6–1
Penalties (18)
- P1 11:01TORZach Sill: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:01STLSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:18STLJori Lehtera: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:35TORDavid Booth: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00TORJoffrey Lupul: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:47TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:47STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:08STLRyan Reaves: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:02TORDavid Booth: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:38STLAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:38TORRichard Panik: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:38STLAlex Pietrangelo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:38STLRobert Bortuzzo: Interference2 min
- P3 4:07TOREric Brewer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:03STLDavid Backes: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:39STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39TORRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39TORRoman Polak: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Steen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Stastny – Reaves2:01
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Stastny – Berglund – Jaskin5:28
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie8:02
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- Jokinen – Berglund – Jaskin2:32
xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Bortuzzo14:10
xG 0.95–0.39 (71%)attempts 25–9goals 0–0
- Butler – Lindbohm11:48
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo8:30
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Panik6:19
xG 0.36–0.12 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Smith – Sill2:33
xG 0.03–0.04 (48%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lupul – Booth – Holland8:18
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak7:31
xG 0.10–0.77 (12%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly7:26
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner10:46
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Brewer – Polak2:54
xG 0.03–0.13 (19%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).