Sat, Mar 7, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vancouver Canucks 3, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 115 | 110 | 19 | 334 |
| SJS | 215 | 013 | 012 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:58SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–1
- P1 11:51SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 19:21VANRadim VrbataAssists: Nick Bonino, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 16:24VANBo HorvatUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 5:21VANRadim VrbataPPGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:05SJSBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:05VANJannik Hansen: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:05VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:05SJSJohn Scott: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:05SJSBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:25SJSTomas Hertl: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:07VANLuca Sbisa: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:48VANAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:47SJSMirco Mueller: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:34VANNick Bonino: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:34SJSMelker Karlsson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:13SJSBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:51SJSTomas Hertl: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Matthias – Bonino10:13
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Hansen – Dorsett – Horvat10:08
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Burrows – McMillan – Vey6:52
xG 0.13–0.20 (40%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Kassian10:58
xG 0.20–1.25 (14%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Sbisa13:26
xG 0.84–0.52 (62%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Edler – Sbisa4:43
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Edler – Clendening2:51
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Karlsson13:27
xG 1.00–0.22 (82%)attempts 25–7goals 1–1
- Scott – Goodrow – Tierney4:38
xG 0.22–0.04 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Couture – Wingels – Nieto3:37
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Nieto8:22
xG 0.53–0.48 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Mueller10:01
xG 0.83–0.04 (95%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun13:51
xG 1.06–0.44 (70%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Hannan – Burns10:27
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).