Mon, Mar 9, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Nashville Predators 2, Arizona Coyotes 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 013 | 18 | 012 | 17 | 240 |
| ARI | 09 | 011 | 18 | 00 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:26NSHPaul GaustadAssists: Taylor Beck · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 7:27ARIKyle ChipchuraPPAssists: John Moore, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- OT 2:45NSHJames NealGWGAssists: Seth Jones, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:31ARIBrandon Gormley: Holding2 min
- P1 5:01ARIMichael Stone: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:38NSHMike Ribeiro: Holding2 min
- P1 12:44ARIDavid Moss: Elbowing2 min
- P1 19:04NSHJames Neal: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:02NSHMike Fisher: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:02ARIB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:12NSHPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:12ARIKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:49NSHJames Neal: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 12:13ARISam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:13NSHGabriel Bourque: Embellishment2 min
- P3 14:21ARIKlas Dahlbeck: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:37ARIDavid Moss: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chipchura won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Neal – Forsberg2:45
xG 0.23–0.01 (94%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg7:22
xG 0.17–0.03 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Cullen – Santorelli – Stalberg10:16
xG 0.33–0.22 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Beck – Bourque5:00
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm10:15
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Franson – Jones12:29
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi17:21
xG 0.47–0.87 (35%)attempts 13–28goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – McGinn – Arcobello10:15
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Doan – Erat – Chipchura9:14
xG 0.63–0.48 (57%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Crombeen – Vitale – Cunningham4:07
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gagner – Shinnimin – Rieder9:11
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Dahlbeck13:56
xG 0.65–0.36 (64%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson15:00
xG 0.51–0.58 (47%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- Stone – Moore2:20
xG 0.00–0.09 (2%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).