Fri, Mar 13, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Dallas Stars 4, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 212 | 213 | 06 | 431 |
| WSH | 19 | 06 | 15 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:25DALShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Ales Hemsky, Jason Demers · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 11:24WSHCurtis GlencrossAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 16:55DALColton SceviourAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Patrik Nemeth · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 7:21DALTyler SeguinPPGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 14:05DALVernon FiddlerPPAssists: Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 18:34WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:24WSHMarcus Johansson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 7:51DALCurtis McKenzie: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:11DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min
- P2 6:29WSHJoel Ward: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:29WSHJoel Ward: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:21WSHTom Wilson: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 5:37WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:37DALCody Eakin: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:37WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:33WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:12DALPatrik Nemeth: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – McKenzie – Ritchie10:58
xG 0.59–0.05 (92%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Eakin – Seguin10:13
xG 0.50–0.40 (56%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Roussel6:19
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Eaves – Sceviour6:56
xG 0.08–0.52 (13%)attempts 2–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Nemeth14:24
xG 0.59–0.43 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Demers – Oleksiak9:59
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Jokipakka11:22
xG 0.77–0.71 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestGlencross – Brouwer – Kuznetsov5:28
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 3–7goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Burakovsky2:29
xG 0.17–0.06 (73%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ward – Fehr – Johansson3:12
xG 0.09–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Laich – Wilson – Burakovsky4:33
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Green5:41
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Carlson2:47
xG 0.23–0.05 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Green – Schmidt4:40
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).