Mon, Mar 16, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 115 | 15 | 07 | 1 | 438 |
| BUF | 215 | 08 | 17 | 03 | 0 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:02BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 9:23WSHCurtis GlencrossPPAssists: Joel Ward, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–1
- P1 10:08BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Tim Schaller · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 6:09WSHMike GreenAssists: Marcus Johansson, Brooks Laich · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 5:55WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 13:50BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Chad Ruhwedel, Matt Moulson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 2. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 3. BUF Matt Moulson stopped
- 4. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 5. BUF Phil Varone stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:28BUFMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:28WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 3:28WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:36BUFJerry D'Amigo: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:50WSHEric Fehr: Holding2 min
- P3 4:10BUFNikita Zadorov: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 9:49WSHTroy Brouwer: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Conner – Johansson4:11
xG 0.18–0.03 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson8:50
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Laich – Conner – Wilson4:21
xG 0.12–0.16 (42%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Glencross – Brouwer – Kuznetsov13:07
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Schmidt12:06
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Gleason – Green9:21
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Green – Schmidt2:31
xG 0.04–0.07 (35%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Larsson13:36
xG 0.90–0.23 (79%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Varone14:02
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 8–22goals 0–0
- Ellis – Dalpe – D'Amigo3:01
xG 0.14–0.27 (35%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Hodgson – Deslauriers – Schaller10:30
xG 0.08–0.26 (22%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Zadorov11:45
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Benoit – Strachan17:11
xG 0.63–0.41 (61%)attempts 15–20goals 0–1
- Weber – Ristolainen19:38
xG 0.46–0.64 (42%)attempts 10–29goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).