Thu, Mar 19, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
San Jose Sharks 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 121 | 310 | 011 | 442 |
| TOR | 08 | 114 | 06 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:02SJSTomas HertlAssists: Chris Tierney, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 2:06SJSLogan CouturePPGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 8:54TORJake GardinerAssists: Leo Komarov, Brandon Kozun · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 10:19SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 19:54SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Matt Nieto, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:15TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:39SJSLogan Couture: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 7:34TORBrandon Kozun: Holding2 min
- P1 13:16TORSam Carrick: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:55TORTrevor Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:48SJSTomas Hertl: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:10TORRichard Panik: Charging2 min
- P3 19:23SJSBrenden Dillon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:23TORJames van Riemsdyk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Wingels – Nieto10:00
xG 0.60–0.06 (91%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson9:30
xG 0.68–0.29 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Smith – Tarasov – Goodrow6:30
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Marleau – Hertl – Tierney11:56
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Mueller16:24
xG 0.87–0.20 (81%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Braun14:24
xG 0.65–0.24 (73%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Burns – Irwin13:49
xG 0.47–0.27 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Panik – Kozun6:49
xG 0.26–0.12 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Lupul – Komarov – Kozun2:47
xG 0.04–0.04 (45%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lupul – Booth – Smith7:14
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Sill – Carrick7:25
xG 0.06–0.26 (20%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brewer – MacWilliam3:11
xG 0.06–0.06 (48%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Brewer – Rielly10:38
xG 0.25–0.30 (46%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
- MacWilliam – Erixon11:20
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).