Sat, Mar 21, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 312 | 04 | 325 |
| OTT | 216 | 29 | 116 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:20OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Alex Chiasson, Marc Methot · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 16:06OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Matt Puempel · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 2:42TORJoakim LindstromAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Sam Carrick · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 3:09OTTCurtis LazarAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 4:30TORLeo KomarovAssists: Zach Sill · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 15:32TORTim ErixonUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P2 19:08OTTKyle TurrisPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Patrick Wiercioch · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:13OTTKyle TurrisENAssists: Mark Stone, Andrew Hammond · Wrist, 0.56 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:12OTTEric Gryba: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:12TORZach Sill: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:14TORTyler Bozak: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:11TORJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
- P2 7:33OTTBobby Ryan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:17TORTim Erixon: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:06TORJoakim Lindstrom: Interference2 min
- P3 9:46OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:46TORZach Sill: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:41TORRichard Panik: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLindstrom – Kozun – Carrick4:25
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Komarov – Sill – Panik5:37
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak17:28
xG 0.47–0.67 (41%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Lupul – Booth – Smith10:52
xG 0.07–0.28 (21%)attempts 4–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly16:36
xG 0.45–0.21 (69%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- MacWilliam – Erixon9:39
xG 0.14–0.36 (29%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Brewer – Phaneuf14:40
xG 0.19–0.53 (26%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Pageau – Lazar11:41
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Condra – Turris – Stone2:25
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad3:47
xG 0.15–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Turris – Chiasson – Stone2:44
xG 0.13–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson16:15
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 13–12goals 3–1
- Methot – Ceci5:08
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci11:21
xG 0.28–0.23 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).