Sun, Mar 22, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Boston Bruins 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 17 | 010 | 211 | 328 |
| TBL | 38 | 17 | 14 | 519 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Adam McQuaid · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 5:49TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Brenden Morrow, JT Brown · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P1 10:47TBLJT BrownAssists: Ondrej Palat, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 11:02TBLAnton StralmanAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Vladislav Namestnikov · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 7:54TBLJason GarrisonGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson, Matt Carle · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 10:22BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Reilly Smith, David Pastrnak · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 13:50TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Ryan Callahan, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 19:12BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Max Talbot, Gregory Campbell · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:07TBLTyler Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:07BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:35TBLAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:05TBLSteven Stamkos: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:05BOSBrad Marchand: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:56TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:01BOSCarl Soderberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Spooner – Pastrnak12:41
xG 0.39–0.07 (84%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith12:24
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Campbell – Talbot – Paille9:59
xG 0.52–0.55 (48%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg13:41
xG 0.12–0.43 (21%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Trotman9:58
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 17–2goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Krug14:59
xG 0.59–0.39 (61%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Chara – McQuaid4:06
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Drouin13:04
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov12:35
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Namestnikov13:02
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown8:13
xG 0.10–0.30 (25%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Sustr13:13
xG 0.70–0.19 (78%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Stralman – Hedman15:47
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Carle – Sustr4:49
xG 0.10–0.23 (31%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).