Tue, Mar 24, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Arizona Coyotes 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 15 | 28 | 18 | 11 | 522 |
| DET | 013 | 213 | 211 | 00 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:43ARIJohn MooreAssists: Craig Cunningham, Joe Vitale · Deflected, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 3:00DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Kyle Quincey · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 10:56ARIMark ArcobelloPPAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, John Moore · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 11:32DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Jakub Kindl, Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 15:08ARIDavid MossAssists: Klas Dahlbeck, Sam Gagner · Deflected, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 1:57DETJakub KindlAssists: Tomas Jurco, Tomas Tatar · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 9:19ARIDavid MossPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Mark Arcobello · Deflected, 0.19 xG4–3
- P3 13:39DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Henrik Zetterberg · Deflected, 0.41 xG4–4
- OT 3:08ARIMark ArcobelloGWGAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:10ARILauri Korpikoski: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:47ARIShane Doan: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:47ARIShane Doan: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:10DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:42DETMarek Zidlicky: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 3:46DETDarren Helm: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:46DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:15ARIMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P3 13:20ARIMartin Erat: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chipchura won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Crombeen – Vitale – Cunningham7:18
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Erat – Moss – Gagner9:30
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Doan – Arcobello – Rieder9:12
xG 0.37–0.59 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Chipchura – Korpikoski – Szwarz6:11
xG 0.21–0.46 (31%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Dahlbeck – Murphy13:08
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 1–2
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson18:36
xG 0.89–1.27 (41%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Campbell – Moore11:50
xG 0.30–1.02 (23%)attempts 3–21goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Tatar – Sheahan9:35
xG 1.21–0.32 (79%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Jurco – Glendening6:56
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Andersson – Nyquist – Pulkkinen3:13
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist7:41
xG 0.47–0.41 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Kindl8:54
xG 1.14–0.39 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Quincey – DeKeyser14:20
xG 0.78–0.51 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Smith14:21
xG 0.62–0.39 (62%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).