Sat, Mar 28, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 212 | 13 | 01 | 325 |
| TOR | 07 | 014 | 38 | 12 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:25OTTMark StoneAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 5:59OTTCurtis LazarAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Erik Condra · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 4:13TORTyler BozakAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Phil Kessel · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 9:30OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: David Legwand, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 11:29TORTyler BozakPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 18:36TORTyler BozakAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–3
- OT 3:17TOREric BrewerGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.26 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:05OTTBobby Ryan: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:14OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 12:14TORTJ Brennan: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:14OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:21TORTrevor Smith: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:10OTTClarke MacArthur: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:38OTTMika Zibanejad: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Carrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Zibanejad6:28
xG 0.38–0.09 (80%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Chiasson – Zibanejad4:39
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Legwand – Smith – Hoffman5:01
xG 0.05–0.10 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Condra – Pageau – Lazar12:42
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson23:18
xG 0.78–0.45 (63%)attempts 24–22goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch2:38
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gryba – Borowiecki12:51
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLindstrom – Booth – Smith11:51
xG 0.67–0.10 (87%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Sill – Panik – Carrick7:28
xG 0.15–0.14 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:02
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Lupul – Komarov – Kadri10:58
xG 0.32–0.45 (42%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly18:16
xG 0.90–0.34 (72%)attempts 25–10goals 0–0
- Brewer – Erixon2:10
xG 0.07–0.01 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Brennan – Erixon10:22
xG 0.34–0.39 (46%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).