Sat, Mar 28, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Buffalo Sabres 3, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 012 | 08 | 318 | 338 |
| COL | 212 | 23 | 17 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:47COLMarc-Andre ClicheAssists: Cody McLeod, Dennis Everberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 11:19COLJohn MitchellAssists: Matt Duchene, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 3:29COLTyson BarrieAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 6:56COLMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, Zach Redmond · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 3:09BUFAndrej MeszarosAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Johan Larsson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 4:48COLBrad StuartAssists: Jarome Iginla, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–5
- P3 5:29BUFAndrej MeszarosUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 8:43BUFRasmus RistolainenAssists: Marcus Foligno, Zac Dalpe · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:52COLZach Redmond: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:44COLNick Holden: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:36COLGabriel Landeskog: Charging2 min
- P3 14:05BUFZach Bogosian: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEllis – Hodgson – Schaller8:57
xG 0.51–0.05 (92%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Dalpe – Foligno – Grigorenko9:20
xG 0.77–0.46 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Gionta – Moulson – Larsson12:08
xG 0.57–0.53 (51%)attempts 14–9goals 1–3
- Kaleta – Deslauriers – Varone10:33
xG 0.04–0.35 (11%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Ristolainen8:51
xG 0.52–0.07 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 3–0
- Benoit – Bogosian14:52
xG 0.97–0.68 (59%)attempts 22–14goals 0–3
- Strachan – Weber8:55
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCaron – Hishon – Hamilton5:35
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McLeod – Cliche – Everberg4:41
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- McLeod – Cliche – Hishon2:08
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Duchene13:11
xG 0.47–0.67 (41%)attempts 11–17goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Barrie2:10
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Stuart – Holden13:53
xG 0.59–0.55 (52%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Hejda – Holden2:02
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).