Tue, Mar 31, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 114 | 014 | 013 | 141 |
| TOR | 211 | 010 | 17 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:53TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Joakim Lindstrom, TJ Brennan · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:03TORDavid BoothGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 18:04TBLRyan CallahanPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–2
- P3 0:24TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Nazem Kadri, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:59TBLBrenden Morrow: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:10TBLRyan Callahan: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:38TORSam Carrick: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 15:38TBLJT Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:05TORMorgan Rielly: Holding2 min
- P2 5:07TORJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:49TOREric Brewer: Interference2 min
- P2 19:49TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Paquette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Namestnikov9:48
xG 0.66–0.57 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Stamkos12:23
xG 0.30–0.40 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown8:17
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Drouin8:45
xG 0.23–0.39 (38%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Witkowski13:45
xG 0.97–0.50 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Carle – Koekkoek12:17
xG 0.73–0.49 (60%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Carle – Nesterov3:30
xG 0.02–0.16 (11%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Panik2:10
xG 0.50–0.11 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Komarov – Kadri10:24
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Sill – Panik – Carrick4:34
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lupul – Booth – Smith9:40
xG 0.38–0.43 (46%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly15:33
xG 0.90–0.63 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Brennan – Erixon9:29
xG 0.27–0.41 (39%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Brewer – Phaneuf13:25
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).