Tue, Apr 7, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Arizona Coyotes 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 07 | 18 | 19 | 224 |
| CGY | 118 | 07 | 27 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:49CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Dennis Wideman, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 17:09ARIB.J. CrombeenAssists: Craig Cunningham · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 1:13CGYDavid JonesAssists: Micheal Ferland, Matt Stajan · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 7:44ARICraig CunninghamAssists: Kyle Chipchura · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 9:26CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:32ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:28ARIMartin Erat: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:33ARITobias Rieder: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:24ARIMike Smith: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Chipchura
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestErat – Moss – Gagner14:15
xG 0.71–0.12 (86%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Arcobello – Rieder2:55
xG 0.13–0.11 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Vitale – Szwarz – McGinn2:15
xG 0.03–0.08 (25%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Arcobello – Rieder7:31
xG 0.15–0.22 (40%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson19:24
xG 0.58–0.55 (52%)attempts 21–19goals 1–0
- Moore – Murphy14:11
xG 0.45–0.48 (48%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy2:10
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan14:13
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Ferland – Granlund – Jooris6:01
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stajan – Jones – Ferland3:46
xG 0.23–0.13 (65%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Raymond – Backlund – Colborne10:14
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Brodie20:28
xG 1.00–0.31 (77%)attempts 19–20goals 1–0
- Potter – Schlemko5:29
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell19:21
xG 0.54–0.88 (38%)attempts 16–27goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).