Wed, Oct 7, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 17 | 015 | 27 | 329 |
| TOR | 011 | 116 | 010 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:09MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 0:19TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Dion Phaneuf · Deflected, 0.00 xG1–1
- P3 12:02MTLAlex GalchenyukGWGAssists: Andrei Markov, P.K. Subban · Snap, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 19:29MTLMax PaciorettyENAssists: P.K. Subban, Brian Flynn · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:11TORLeo Komarov: Boarding2 min
- P1 5:11MTLDevante Smith-Pelly: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:17TORNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
- P2 0:13MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 8:11MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:17MTLTorrey Mitchell: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Eller – Galchenyuk10:03
xG 0.61–0.08 (89%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:19
xG 0.31–0.39 (45%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Smith-Pelly – Flynn7:06
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise13:42
xG 0.51–1.07 (33%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban16:50
xG 0.73–0.43 (63%)attempts 20–14goals 2–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu11:53
xG 0.59–0.99 (37%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
- Emelin – Petry16:07
xG 0.21–1.08 (16%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – van Riemsdyk – Kadri12:00
xG 0.81–0.16 (83%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Lupul – Matthias – Bozak10:31
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Winnik – Spaling9:53
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Komarov – Holland – Arcobello7:59
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Harrington14:50
xG 1.38–0.60 (70%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Hunwick15:18
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Marincin – Rielly13:46
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).