Fri, Oct 9, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 07 | 06 | 022 |
| DET | 28 | 28 | 06 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15DETJustin AbdelkaderPPGWGAssists: Johan Franzen, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.48 xG0–1
- P1 8:20DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Dylan Larkin, Jakub Kindl · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 0:20DETDylan LarkinAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Mike Green · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 3:54DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Kyle Quincey · Snap, 0.08 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:04TORJoffrey Lupul: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:21TORMartin Marincin: Holding2 min
- P1 4:14DETTeemu Pulkkinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:43TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:43DETJonathan Ericsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:52DETKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:59DETGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:36TORJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:56TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Holland – Arcobello5:34
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Lupul – Matthias – Bozak5:58
xG 0.36–0.08 (81%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Lupul – Winnik – Spaling4:36
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Komarov – van Riemsdyk – Bozak3:42
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Hunwick15:55
xG 0.83–0.62 (57%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Marincin – Rielly13:06
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Harrington14:22
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin10:38
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Richards – Nyquist – Tatar8:56
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Franzen – Sheahan – Pulkkinen10:52
xG 0.23–0.43 (34%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Ferraro – Glendening8:21
xG 0.19–0.41 (32%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Green12:02
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson9:50
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kindl – Smith14:07
xG 0.48–0.75 (39%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).