Sat, Oct 10, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 310 | 111 | 02 | 2 | 533 |
| TOR | 016 | 25 | 213 | 07 | 1 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:46OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 3:38OTTAlex ChiassonPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Patrick Wiercioch · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 4:56OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Kyle Turris · Backhand, 0.32 xG3–0
- P2 7:05TORJoffrey LupulUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 14:33TORTyler BozakAssists: Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 3:18TORPeter HollandPPAssists: PA Parenteau, Dion Phaneuf · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 8:59OTTMark StoneAssists: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 16:12TORDaniel WinnikAssists: Brad Boyes, Nick Spaling · Backhand, 0.04 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. TOR PA Parenteau scored
- 2. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 3. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 4. OTT Bobby Ryan scored
- 5. TOR Joffrey Lupul stopped
- 6. OTT Mike Hoffman scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 19:00TORBrad Boyes: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:31OTTAlex Chiasson: Elbowing2 min
- P2 2:46TORJake Gardiner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:04TORPA Parenteau: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P2 7:41TORTyler Bozak: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:43OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Interference2 min
- P3 3:08OTTMarc Methot: Clipping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:25TORMatt Hunwick: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:00TORBrad Boyes: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:14TORDion Phaneuf: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:14OTTAlex Chiasson: Roughing2 min
- OT 2:11OTTMika Zibanejad: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Smith – Chiasson6:20
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Stone13:11
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Michalek – MacArthur – Pageau10:17
xG 0.36–0.59 (38%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Ryan – Zibanejad – Lazar9:05
xG 0.30–0.62 (33%)attempts 6–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson16:42
xG 0.66–0.29 (70%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Cowen2:02
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Cowen12:23
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – van Riemsdyk – Bozak11:43
xG 0.79–0.25 (76%)attempts 25–5goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Holland – Arcobello4:47
xG 0.15–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – Grabner – Kadri6:06
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Boyes – Kadri – Arcobello2:41
xG 0.17–0.37 (31%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner13:25
xG 0.70–0.47 (60%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Rielly12:31
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Polak – Marincin11:40
xG 0.06–0.60 (9%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).