Mon, Oct 12, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 29 | 28 | 26 | 623 |
| BOS | 213 | 110 | 07 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:59BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Torey Krug, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:02BOSLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Torey Krug, David Krejci · Snap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 15:42TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Victor Hedman, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 16:51TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Anton Stralman · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 4:48TBLBrian BoyleUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 12:20BOSLoui ErikssonPPAssists: David Krejci, Torey Krug · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3
- P2 15:17TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Anton Stralman, Tyler Johnson · Snap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 5:38TBLJonathan DrouinAssists: Erik Condra, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 15:58TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Alex Killorn, JT Brown · Wrist, 0.18 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:41TBLMatt Carle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:39TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:58BOSPatrice Bergeron: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 2:44TBLAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:34BOSDavid Krejci: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:01TBLMatt Carle: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:13BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:38BOSDavid Pastrnak: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Namestnikov – Brown11:00
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov9:28
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Filppula – Condra – Killorn11:46
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Callahan – Stamkos – Drouin10:26
xG 0.09–0.48 (16%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman8:45
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sustr4:12
xG 0.15–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Carle – Sustr8:45
xG 0.17–0.06 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Bergeron – Connolly10:53
xG 0.56–0.20 (73%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Kemppainen6:34
xG 0.12–0.08 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Krejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak13:58
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Kelly – Hayes – Spooner11:06
xG 0.07–0.30 (20%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Miller11:49
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Chara – Miller3:54
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- McQuaid – Krug12:05
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).