Mon, Oct 12, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 08 | 29 | 224 |
| BUF | 07 | 116 | 310 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:33BUFRasmus RistolainenPPAssists: Marcus Foligno, Evander Kane · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 5:10BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Jamie McGinn · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 7:30CBJBrandon SaadPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.26 xG1–2
- P3 9:21BUFJack EichelGWGAssists: Matt Moulson, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 13:13CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–3
- P3 15:47BUFMatt MoulsonPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:07CBJRene Bourque: Holding2 min
- P1 3:20CBJRyan Murray: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:57BUFJosh Gorges: Holding2 min
- P2 0:46CBJNick Foligno: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:36CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:36BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:09CBJGregory Campbell: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:35CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:33CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:32BUFZemgus Girgensons: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:20BUFEvander Kane: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:36CBJRene Bourque: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Bourque – Jenner4:53
xG 0.20–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Campbell – Boll – Calvert2:10
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Atkinson – Karlsson3:58
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Savard – Murray11:20
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Prout – Connauton11:35
xG 0.01–0.08 (15%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson12:29
xG 0.35–0.64 (35%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKane – Foligno – Eichel10:17
xG 0.66–0.24 (73%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Moulson – McGinn – Larsson4:57
xG 0.22–0.04 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ennis – O'Reilly – Girgensons8:01
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – McCabe9:42
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Franson – Weber10:24
xG 0.55–0.38 (59%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen12:33
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).