Thu, Oct 15, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 2, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 112 | 17 | 226 |
| FLA | 214 | 06 | 19 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:52FLAJaromir JagrPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Nick Bjugstad · Slap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 17:34FLAJaromir JagrUnassisted · Wrist, 0.00 xG0–2
- P2 7:10BUFJake McCabeAssists: Marcus Foligno, Nicolas Deslauriers · Slap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 4:24FLAAleksander BarkovPPGWGAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.45 xG1–3
- P3 12:35BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Rasmus Ristolainen · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:22BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:46BUFJosh Gorges: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:23FLADave Bolland: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:40FLAWillie Mitchell: Interference2 min
- P2 1:56FLAReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:27FLAErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:49BUFMark Pysyk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:16BUFMatt Moulson: Holding2 min
- P3 8:50FLAVincent Trocheck: Boarding2 min
- P3 9:14BUFJamie McGinn: Interference2 min
- P3 11:44FLAAaron Ekblad: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Kane – Eichel9:06
xG 0.77–0.18 (81%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Moulson – McGinn – Larsson4:21
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ennis – O'Reilly – Girgensons8:24
xG 0.24–0.18 (56%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Deslauriers – Reinhart3:05
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen13:10
xG 1.22–0.17 (88%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Pysyk – McCabe10:57
xG 0.24–0.18 (56%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Franson – Weber13:00
xG 0.25–0.55 (31%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov9:08
xG 0.27–0.01 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Brickley – Howden7:02
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Pirri – Bjugstad8:15
xG 0.15–0.32 (31%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Bolland – Trocheck9:47
xG 0.19–0.58 (24%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Petrovic14:23
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad11:28
xG 0.17–0.33 (34%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Gudbranson13:27
xG 0.31–1.31 (19%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).