Wed, Oct 21, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 011 | 04 | 03 | 1 | 124 |
| BUF | 012 | 012 | 110 | 01 | 2 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:28TORPA ParenteauAssists: Roman Polak, Michael Grabner · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 15:31BUFEvander KaneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. BUF Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 2. TOR PA Parenteau scored
- 3. BUF Tyler Ennis scored
- 4. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
- 5. BUF Jack Eichel stopped
- 6. TOR Joffrey Lupul stopped
- 7. BUF Evander Kane stopped
- 8. TOR James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 9. BUF Matt Moulson scored
- 10. TOR Brad Boyes stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:10TORRoman Polak: Holding2 min
- P2 4:02BUFJosh Gorges: Holding2 min
- P2 8:15TORNick Spaling: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:36TORMatt Hunwick: Interference2 min
- P3 15:39TORDion Phaneuf: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Winnik – Spaling10:49
xG 0.50–0.16 (75%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Komarov – van Riemsdyk – Kadri14:17
xG 0.46–0.40 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Boyes – Matthias – Holland7:52
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Grabner – Arcobello6:12
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Hunwick12:59
xG 0.70–0.04 (94%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Polak – Marincin10:42
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Polak – Rielly2:02
xG 0.02–0.05 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Moulson – Girgensons5:39
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McGinn – Deslauriers – Larsson2:02
xG 0.05–0.09 (36%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ennis – O'Reilly – Reinhart7:35
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ennis – O'Reilly – Kane2:04
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – McCabe13:46
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen15:15
xG 0.22–0.37 (38%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Franson – Weber14:58
xG 0.35–0.69 (34%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).