Fri, Oct 23, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 7, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 37 | 38 | 726 |
| BUF | 011 | 211 | 014 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:35MTLDale WeiseAssists: P.K. Subban, Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 0:45MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–0
- P2 4:49BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Sam Reinhart, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 11:04BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Cody Franson · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 13:31MTLTorrey MitchellGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Deflected, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 18:22MTLAndrei MarkovPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 0:27MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 11:11MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Andrei Markov, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–2
- P3 15:23MTLDale WeiseAssists: Andrei Markov, David Desharnais · Deflected, 0.15 xG7–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:03MTLAlexander Semin: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:59MTLTomas Fleischmann: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:18BUFTyler Ennis: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:11BUFJosh Gorges: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:54MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:40BUFCody Franson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:33MTLNathan Beaulieu: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:29
xG 0.71–0.61 (54%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise11:20
xG 0.42–0.43 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Smith-Pelly – Flynn7:21
xG 0.12–0.16 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Semin – Eller – Galchenyuk11:05
xG 0.29–0.59 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Markov – Subban16:30
xG 0.47–0.69 (41%)attempts 17–20goals 3–0
- Emelin – Petry16:41
xG 0.33–0.77 (30%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu12:23
xG 0.14–0.62 (18%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart9:55
xG 0.58–0.03 (95%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Moulson – Foligno – Girgensons10:49
xG 0.40–0.02 (94%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Ennis – Eichel13:22
xG 0.80–0.83 (49%)attempts 17–23goals 0–1
- McGinn – Deslauriers – Larsson4:43
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Weber11:31
xG 0.80–0.08 (90%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Pysyk – McCabe12:09
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Franson – McCabe2:22
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).