Sat, Oct 24, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 014 | 223 | 115 | 352 |
| MTL | 111 | 411 | 05 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:53MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 1:54MTLLars EllerAssists: Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 2:37TORLeo KomarovAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Scott Harrington · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 4:24MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Dale Weise · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 6:36TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 15:30MTLMax PaciorettySHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P2 19:46MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Tip-in, 0.23 xG2–5
- P3 7:11TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:16TORScott Harrington: Interference2 min
- P1 5:59MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P1 9:21TORPA Parenteau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:36TORNick Spaling: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 14:36MTLLars Eller: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:41MTLDevante Smith-Pelly: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:48TORDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:48TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:48MTLAlexei Emelin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:08MTLJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:45MTLDale Weise: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – van Riemsdyk – Kadri12:52
xG 0.76–0.53 (59%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Boyes – Matthias – Arcobello7:15
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Lupul – Winnik – Spaling9:30
xG 0.62–0.59 (51%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Winnik – Matthias – Spaling2:03
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrington – Rielly14:16
xG 1.26–0.52 (71%)attempts 23–9goals 2–0
- Polak – Marincin9:13
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Hunwick13:16
xG 0.72–0.85 (46%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher13:17
xG 0.73–0.30 (71%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Smith-Pelly – Flynn7:51
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
- Semin – Eller – Galchenyuk9:06
xG 0.72–0.91 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 1–2
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise7:37
xG 0.26–0.63 (29%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban16:44
xG 1.17–0.88 (57%)attempts 17–25goals 0–3
- Gilbert – Beaulieu10:59
xG 0.54–0.73 (43%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Emelin – Petry12:53
xG 0.35–0.63 (36%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).