Mon, Oct 26, 2015·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Calgary Flames 0, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 010 | 011 | 029 |
| NYI | 014 | 110 | 311 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:01NYIMikhail GrabovskiPPGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Johnny Boychuk · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 5:26NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 11:33NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 18:10NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Kyle Okposo, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:56NYIMatt Martin: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 0:17NYITravis Hamonic: Interference2 min
- P2 9:35CGYBrandon Bollig: Interference2 min
- P2 12:10CGYDougie Hamilton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 18:46CGYBrandon Bollig: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:57CGYBrandon Bollig: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:09NYIMatt Martin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Colborne – Grant4:30
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Gaudreau3:03
xG 0.20–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Colborne – Monahan – Jooris2:51
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bollig – Jooris6:00
xG 0.04–0.17 (20%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Hamilton5:17
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Engelland – Smid6:04
xG 0.13–0.09 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Engelland – Russell6:52
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Lee – Nelson10:26
xG 1.02–0.35 (75%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Strome13:00
xG 0.76–0.42 (64%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:27
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin9:48
xG 0.48–0.66 (42%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan17:22
xG 1.53–0.40 (79%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Strait14:07
xG 0.47–0.54 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Boychuk – Leddy12:54
xG 0.46–0.72 (39%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).