Fri, Oct 30, 2015·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Colorado Avalanche 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 17 | 114 | 232 |
| CAR | 07 | 213 | 16 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:49COLAlex TanguayAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 12:00CARVictor RaskAssists: Kris Versteeg, Ryan Murphy · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 14:54CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Ryan Murphy, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 5:07CARJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Riley Nash, Brett Pesce · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 19:28COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:19CARVictor Rask: Interference2 min
- P1 8:49CARJohn-Michael Liles: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:20COLErik Johnson: Interference2 min
- P2 2:39COLBrandon Gormley: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:32CAREric Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 13:21COLJohn Mitchell: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:40COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – MacKinnon10:34
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Grigorenko5:35
xG 0.06–0.08 (41%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Everberg7:42
xG 0.69–0.95 (42%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Skille – Duchene – Landeskog10:52
xG 0.18–0.50 (27%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGormley – Zadorov8:43
xG 0.79–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Holden – Barrie15:38
xG 0.72–0.81 (47%)attempts 11–21goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Johnson14:07
xG 0.52–0.71 (42%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Versteeg – Rask10:59
xG 0.66–0.49 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Terry – Nash – Skinner4:40
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- McClement – Malone – McGinn4:06
xG 0.08–0.12 (39%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Staal – McGinn2:09
xG 0.01–0.11 (10%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk12:32
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Liles – Pesce16:28
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Murphy – Hanifin11:07
xG 0.70–0.99 (41%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).