Fri, Oct 30, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 3, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 112 | 18 | 115 | 335 |
| DET | 010 | 111 | 09 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:46OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 10:10OTTMatt PuempelGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 17:00DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Teemu Pulkkinen, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 19:05OTTBobby RyanENAssists: Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:45DETJustin Abdelkader: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:14OTTCody Ceci: Holding2 min
- P2 3:13OTTChris Neil: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:48OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:53DETTomas Jurco: Holding2 min
- P2 15:44OTTCody Ceci: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:37OTTZack Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:56DETBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:59DETJakub Kindl: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Zibanejad – Puempel8:21
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Turris – Stone – Prince8:30
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau8:42
xG 0.05–0.08 (40%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – McCormick4:20
xG 0.03–0.28 (9%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Ceci11:22
xG 0.48–0.19 (71%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson13:25
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Cowen12:55
xG 0.15–0.34 (30%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin8:26
xG 0.25–0.05 (85%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan5:40
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Helm – Pulkkinen – Jurco6:19
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening6:45
xG 0.07–0.21 (26%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kronwall – Ericsson10:52
xG 0.31–0.30 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Kindl – Smith12:00
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Marchenko – DeKeyser12:18
xG 0.34–0.55 (38%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).