Tue, Nov 17, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Dallas Stars 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 012 | 28 | 329 |
| BUF | 06 | 011 | 18 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:51DALValeri NichushkinAssists: Antoine Roussel, Cody Eakin · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 7:35DALJason SpezzaGWGAssists: Alex Goligoski, Mattias Janmark · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 13:03BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Cody Franson, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 18:33DALTyler SeguinENAssists: Jamie Benn, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:37BUFSam Reinhart: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:48DALJohn Klingberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:37DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:16DALAlex Goligoski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Eaves – Janmark11:01
xG 0.40–0.05 (88%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Nichushkin10:27
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Fiddler – Sceviour8:34
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Sharp – Benn – Seguin12:32
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg20:40
xG 0.88–0.58 (60%)attempts 25–22goals 1–0
- Oduya – Demers14:25
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Benn – Jokipakka12:06
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Eichel3:39
xG 0.09–0.04 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moulson – O'Reilly8:38
xG 0.17–0.14 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Gionta – O'Reilly – Reinhart2:50
xG 0.06–0.07 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – McGinn – Deslauriers7:10
xG 0.05–0.07 (42%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Franson – Pysyk13:24
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen17:27
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Bogosian – McCabe17:22
xG 0.12–0.62 (16%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).