Tue, Nov 17, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Colorado Avalanche 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 013 | 112 | 010 | 135 |
| TOR | 210 | 111 | 29 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21TORLeo KomarovSHAssists: Shawn Matthias · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 18:37TORPA ParenteauPPGWGAssists: Peter Holland, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 10:12TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Brad Boyes, Peter Holland · Snap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 12:04COLErik JohnsonAssists: Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 11:21TORPA ParenteauPPAssists: Peter Holland, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 15:59TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Matt Hunwick, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:32TORByron Froese: Holding2 min
- P1 18:19COLBlake Comeau: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:43TORByron Froese: Holding2 min
- P2 9:53COLBlake Comeau: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:25TORNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:51COLFrancois Beauchemin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:31COLBrandon Gormley: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:50COLAndreas Martinsen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:14TORMartin Marincin: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Comeau – Soderberg12:20
xG 0.50–0.33 (61%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Duchene – Grigorenko – MacKinnon13:38
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- McLeod – Wagner – Martinsen8:06
xG 0.07–0.10 (39%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Skille – Street – Everberg4:23
xG 0.10–0.34 (22%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Gormley10:26
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Holden – Barrie17:26
xG 0.67–0.53 (56%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Johnson14:42
xG 0.20–0.59 (25%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Grabner – Holland5:15
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Komarov – van Riemsdyk – Kadri11:53
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Matthias – Bozak9:43
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Lupul – Winnik – Froese11:16
xG 0.16–0.34 (31%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Marincin14:03
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Rielly13:05
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Gardiner14:07
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).