Thu, Nov 19, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Arizona Coyotes 3, Montréal Canadiens 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 25 | 18 | 07 | 320 |
| MTL | 013 | 16 | 114 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:04ARIMartin HanzalAssists: Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 9:17ARIShane DoanAssists: Tobias Rieder, Mike Smith · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 3:51ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 15:59MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Tomas Plekanec · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 19:09MTLDale WeiseAssists: Andrei Markov, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:43MTLTomas Fleischmann: Elbowing2 min
- P1 6:57ARIZbynek Michalek: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:41ARIAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:22ARIMartin Hanzal: Kneeing2 min
- P2 3:31MTLLars Eller: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 19:25ARIZbynek Michalek: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:56ARIMichael Stone: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Galchenyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHanzal – Rieder – Duclair9:04
xG 0.63–0.40 (62%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Gordon – Chipchura – Cunningham7:01
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Richardson – Boedker – Domi8:59
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Martinook9:11
xG 0.24–0.69 (26%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Murphy11:25
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson16:28
xG 0.49–0.62 (44%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
- Michalek – Dahlbeck11:50
xG 0.28–0.54 (34%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Desharnais – Weise11:00
xG 0.49–0.12 (81%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Eller – Galchenyuk7:16
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Byron – Smith-Pelly – Flynn7:17
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:58
xG 0.68–0.76 (47%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Beaulieu14:15
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Pateryn8:24
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Petry2:03
xG 0.01–0.02 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).